Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (More of “The Wave”, but Only Ripples?)

By Lambert Strether of .

Here is latest iteration of my “Table 1” for the 2018 primaries. The structure is the same as the last iteration (“‘Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (First Ripples of “The Wave”?)’. The California primary is coming up shortly on June 5, but fortunately this is not a horse-race series, so I don’t have to write up any predictions! (I will, however, go through the infamous and hysterical California “Top Two” primary system that is causing such agita among the Democrat regulars and consultants (who rammed it through in the first place)). There are no changes to the structure. I have, however, finally completed expanding the table into Tilt Republican and Lean Republican territory, and so all the seats even remotely in play in (last updated May 16) are now visible. There are 82, and surely, if the Democrats are to win the 23 seats they need to win to take control of the House, those 23 are in that 82. (These new races do not yet have information in the Challengers column. I have also not yet marked winners, which I will do before a grand retrospective in November).

Herewith the table, which gives us one important result (which is the same as the result two weeks ago, with caveats).

Table 1: Worksheet on House Races, Election 2018 (05-30).

District Primary Date Party Status Incumbent Horserace Horserace (Previous) Challengers
AR-02 05-22 R Hill Likely-R Gwen Combs , Jonathan Dunkley , Paul Spencer , Clarke Tucker
AZ-01 08-28 D O’Halleran Tilt-D Tilt-D [DP]
AZ-02 08-28 R Open McSally Tilt-D Tilt-D , [DP; h], (, ; but .) [EL, DCCC, DP][fM], , () [JD; m][M], () , () [DP][M], [DP][M]
AZ-08 08-28 R Special VACANT Likely-R Likely-R Bob Musselwhite , Bob Olsen
CA-04 06-05 R McClintock Likely-R Regina Bateson , Roza Calderon , Robert Lawton , Jessica Morse
CA-07 06-05 D Bera Likely-D Likely-D [No challenger]
CA-10 06-05 R Denham Tilt-R Tilt-R Mike Barkley , [DP; m][M], Michael Eggman , , Josh Harder , [e][M], Virginia Madueno , [fM], [M], Sue Zwahlen ,
CA-21 06-05 R Valadao Likely-R Likely-R Bobby Bliatout , Ricardo Franco , Andrew Janz
CA-25 06-05 R Knight Tilt-R Tilt-R Bryan Caforio , [M], Katie Hill , [fM], Mary Pallant , Mary Pallant () , Jess Phoenix ,
CA-39 06-05 R Open Royce Toss-Up Toss-Up (; ) [DCCC; m], () [DP][M], [DP], , Cybil Steed () [e], () [OR; e][M], (, ) [EL; h]
CA-45 06-05 R Walters Lean-R Lean-R Brian Forde , [DP; s], John Graham , Kia Hamadanchy , [M], Dave Min , (CAP.) , Katie Porter , [M]
CA-48 06-05 R Rohrabacher Tilt-R Tilt-R Hans Keirstead , [h][fM], Michael Kotick , Laura Oatman , Rachel Payne , (Googler; ) [EL; s], Harley Rouda , , Deanie Schaarsmith , Deanie Schaarsmith , Omar Siddiqui , [in][fM], Tony Zarkades , [m][M]
CA-49 06-05 R Open Issa Toss-Up Toss-Up [JD; m][M], () [EL, DP][M], ( ) [m][M], () [DP][M]
CA-50 06-05 R Hunter Likely-R Likely-R Josh Butner , Ammar Campa-Najjar , Patrick Malloy
CO-06 06-26 R Coffman Tilt-R Tilt-R [DCCC, DP; m], Stephany Rose Spaulding , [M], [M]
FL-07 08-28 D Murphy Lean-D Lean-D [BN, JD; m][M]
FL-13 08-28 D Crist Likely-D Likely-D [No challenger]
FL-26 08-28 R Curbelo Tilt-R Tilt-R [m], () , Steven Machat [M], , [m]
FL-27 08-28 R Open Ros-Lehtinen Lean-D Lean-D [EL], () [DP; e], , () [BN, JD; e], , (, ) [DP][M], () [DP], [DP], (; ) [DP]
GA-06 05-22 R Handel Likely-R Likely-R Kevin Abel , Steven Knight Griffin , Bobby Kaple , Lucy McBath
GA-07 05-22 R Woodall Likely-R Kathleen Allen , Carolyn Bourdeaux , Melissa Davis , David Kim , Ethan Pham , Steve Reilly
IA-01 06-05 R Blum Toss-Up Tilt-R Abby Finkenauer , , [m, l], [JD; m][M]
IA-03 06-05 00 Young Likely-R Likely-R Cindy Axne , Pete D’Alessandro ,
IL-06 03-20 R Roskam Tilt-R Tilt-R Becky Anderson () , () [fM], , [DP; e], [M], (“A Medicare-for-all public option.”) [fM], Becky Anderson Wilkins () , Becky Anderson Wilkins () ,
IL-12 03-20 R Bost Lean-R Lean-R [m], () [DCCC; m, in, l]
IL-13 03-20 R R. Davis Likely-R Likely-R Jonathan Ebel , David Gill , Erik Jones , Betsy Londrigan , Angel Sides
IN-02 05-08 R Walorski Likely-R Douglas Carpenter , Pat Hackett , Mel Hall , Yatish Joshi , Roland Leech , John Petroff
KS-02 08-07 R Open Jenkins Lean-R Lean-R , Nathan Schmidt ()
KS-03 08-07 R Yoder Lean-R Lean-R Sharice Davids () , , (“Create a single-payer Option”) [s], Tom Niermann [e], , [M],
KY-06 05-22 R Barr Lean-R Lean-R Jim Gray () , , , [DP; m], [DP; e], ()
ME-02 06-12 R Poliquin Likely-R Likely-R Jared Golden , Craig Olson , Lucas St. Clair
MI-06 08-27 R Upton Likely-R Likely-R David Benac , Paul Clements , George Franklin , Rich Eichholz , Eponine Garrod , Matt Longjohn
MI-07 08-07 R Walberg Likely-R Gretchen Driskell , Steven Friday
MI-08 08-27 R Bishop Lean-R Lean-R (; ; .) [EL, DCCC, DP; m, in][fM],
MI-11 08-27 R Open Trott Toss-Up Toss-Up (Site not responsive.) , , [fM], Fayrouz Saad [M],
MN-01 08-14 D Open Walz Toss-Up Toss-Up [M], (, , ) [DCCC, DP; m], [DP], () [m], , () [DP; m, l][M]
MN-02 08-14 R Lewis Toss-Up Toss-Up () [EL, DCCC], () [e][M]
MN-03 08-14 R Paulsen Lean-R Lean-R [M], Adam Jennings , Adam Jennings () [m], Dean Phillips , , Brian Santa Maria
MN-07 08-14 D Peterson Likely-D Likely-D [No challenger]
MN-08 08-14 D Open Nolan Toss-Up Toss-Up () [DP], [M], () [DP], () [in][M], [DP]
MT-01 06-05 R Gianforte Likely-R Likely-R John Heenan , Grant Kier , John Meyer , Jared Pettinato , Kathleen Williams
NC-09 05-08 R Pittenger Tilt-R Tilt-R Christian Cano , Dan McCready
NC-13 05-08 00 Budd Likely-R Likely-R Adam Coker , Kathy Manning
NM-02 06-05 R Open Pearce Likely-R Likely-R Madeleine Hildebrandt , Xochitl Torres Small
NM-02 06-05 R NULL Lean-R Madeleine Hildebrandt , Xochitl Torres Small
NE-02 05-15 R Bacon Tilt-R Tilt-R , (; .) [JD; e][M]
NH-01 09-11 D Open Shea-Porter Tilt-D Tilt-D (, ) [DP], () [DP], () [BN; s][M], [m, l][M], () [DP], (; ) [M], [l], () [EL, DP; m]
NJ-02 06-05 R Open LoBiondo Tilt-D Tilt-D () [DP], () [e][M], () [DCCC, DP], () [e]
NJ-03 06-05 R MacArthur Likely-R Rich Dennison , Katherine Hartman , Andrew Kim , Frederick John Lavergne
NJ-05 06-05 D Gottheimer Lean-D Tilt-D [No challenger]
NJ-07 06-05 R Lance Tilt-R Lean-R (; ) [M], ,
NJ-11 06-05 R Open Frelinghuysen Tilt-D Tilt-D [l], () [m], () , Alison Heslin , () [EL, DCCC; m, l][M], [e][M]
NV-03 06-12 D Open Rosen Tilt-D Tilt-D , (; )) [EL, DCCC; e], [M], () [s], , Eric Stoltz , () [M]
NV-04 06-12 D Open Kihuen Likely-D Likely-D () [e], () [DCCC, DP], () [DP; m][M], () [DP; e], () [BN, JD][M], [m, in]
NY-11 06-26 R Donovan Likely-R Likely-R Michael DeVito, Jr. , Zach Emig , Radhakrishna Mohan , Max Rose , Paul Sperling , Omar Vaid
NY-19 06-26 R Faso Tilt-R Tilt-R [JD; in, e][M], [M], Erin Collier () , [fM], Brian Flynn [M], , [m, in]
NY-22 06-26 R Tenney Tilt-R Tilt-R
NY-24 06-26 R Katko Likely-R Likely-R Dana Balter , Juanita Perez Williams
OH-01 05-08 R Chabot Likely-R Robert Barr , Aftab Pureval , Laura Ann Weaver
OH-12 05-08 R Special VACANT Tilt-R Tilt-R Ed Albertson , Danny O’Connor , Jackie Patton , John Peters , John Russell , Zach Scott , Doug Wilson
OH-14 05-08 R Joyce Likely-R Betsy Rader
PA-01 05-15 R Fitzpatrick Tilt-R Tilt-R [DP; e][M], [EL; m], Scott Wallace ()
PA-05 05-15 R Open Meehan Likely-D Likely-D [e], () [DP], () [in][fM], [DP], [DP], () [DP][M], () , () [l], (; ) [DP], , () [s][M], () [DP], ,
PA-06 05-15 R Costello Likely-D Likely-D (; ) [EL, DCCC; m]
PA-07 05-15 R Open Dent Tilt-D Tilt-D , [DP], [JD][M], [DP; l], () [e], (; ) [EL; l]
PA-08 05-15 R Fitzpatrick Likely-D Likely-D [No challenger]
PA-10 05-15 R Perry Likely-R Likely-R Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson , Eric Ding , Alan Howe , George Scott
PA-17 05-15 R Rothfus Toss-Up Tilt-R [m, l], Ray Linsenmayer (Dropped out (oddly). ; ; .)
TX-07 03-06 R Culberson Tilt-R Tilt-R [h, e], [DP], , () , Ivan Sanchez [fM], , (; ) [h]
TX-21 03-06 R Open Smith Likely-R Derrick Crowe , Joseph Kopser , Elliott McFadden , Mary Wilson
TX-23 03-06 R Hurd Toss-Up Toss-Up [EL, DCCC, DP; m, l][M], [JD, OR, DP][M]
TX-32 03-06 00 Sessions Likely-R Likely-R Colin Allred , Ron Marshall , Todd Maternowski , Ed Meier , George Rodriguez , Lillian Salerno , Brett Shipp
UT-04 06-26 R Love Lean-R Lean-R () , , [JD; s][M], Morgan Shepherd , [s][M]
VA-02 06-12 R Taylor Likely-R Likely-R Elaine Luria , Karen Mallard
VA-05 06-12 R Garrett Likely-R Likely-R Leslie Cockburn , Roger Dean Huffstetler , Andrew Sneathern
VA-07 06-12 00 Brat Lean-R Likely-R Abigail Spanberger , Dan Ward
VA-10 06-12 R Comstock Toss-Up Toss-Up [DP; h], () [s], () [DP; in], () [m][fM], , () [l], () , () [DP], () [DP; l]
WA-05 08-07 R McMorris Rodgers Likely-R Likely-R Lisa Brown , Matt Sutherland
WA-08 08-07 R Open Reichert Toss-Up Toss-Up , [M], () [h], () [M], [M], (; .) [IN; l][M], () [EL, IN; h]
WI-01 08-14 R Open Ryan Lean-R Lean-R () [fM], () [e][M]
WI-01 08-14 R NULL Likely-R () [fM], () [e][M]
WV-03 05-08 R Open NULL Likely-R Paul Davis , Janice Hagerman , Shirley Love , Richard Ojeda
  • Bio keys are m, i, l, and o) for Military, Intelligence, Law Enforcement, and Other (except I didn’t find any Others this time[5]). A candidate who worked for the CIA is keyed i. A candidate who worked in Law enforcement and the military is keyed “lm.” “Law Enforcement” is conceived broadly, including not only police but district attorneys.
  • Backer keys are BN, EL, IN, JD, OR, and DCCC, Brand New Congress, Emily’s List, Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, and (of course) the DCCC. In addition, there is a DP key, for members of the Democrat Party network, elected and otherwise, and S, for challengers inspired by Sanders.
  • Policy keys are M, fM, for Medicare for All, and any of the various bait-and-switch alternatives proposed by think tanks like CAP, or centrists like Merkeley. Some judgement is involved, based on the verbiage. “Single payer” always merits an “M,” for example.
  • Bio keys are m, i, l, and o) for Military, Intelligence, Law Enforcement, and Other (except I didn’t find any Others this time[5]). A candidate who worked for the CIA is keyed i. A candidate who worked in Law enforcement and the military is keyed “lm.” “Law Enforcement” is conceived broadly, including not only police but district attorneys.
  • Backer keys are BN, EL, IN, JD, OR, and DCCC, Brand New Congress, Emily’s List, Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, and (of course) the DCCC. In addition, there is a DP key, for members of the Democrat Party network, elected and otherwise, and S, for challengers inspired by Sanders.
  • Policy keys are M, fM, for Medicare for All, and any of the various bait-and-switch alternatives proposed by think tanks like CAP, or centrists like Merkeley. Some judgement is involved, based on the verbiage. “Single payer” always merits an “M,” for example.

Two weeks ago, I wrote:

Now the important result:

Using the horserace predictions from the handicappers at Inside Elections (), we come up with the following changes from our post of two weeks ago:

Two weeks ago, only one district (MN-07), had changed from Lean-D to Likely-D. Now an additional six have shifted in the same direction (although, oddly, none from Pennsylvania, and none from California). Although only two have shifted from Toss-Up to Tilt-D, all are moving in the same direction. For a Democrat loyalist, as well as anybody who wants to see divided government return to Washington, that’s good news.

Here is the same query today:

If this is a wave, I’ve not seeing it, yet. (You can throw the districts with “–” in the “Previous” column out, for now; they have no previous value because they’re in Republican territory, which I just added; and all but one of them are “Likely-R.”) The five actual changes are all directionally good for Democrats, but combined — do feel free to check my arithmetic here — with the previous table’s five, that means only 10 (of the 23 necessary) districts are moving, and of[1] those:

A lot more Districts need to move to Tilt-D, Lean-D, or Likely-D for anything like a wave to be happening.

Caveats: The Inside Elections ratings are from May 16, so things may have changed, and when things start moving, sometimes they move fast. () But if things have changed, I would have expected the news flow to reflect that in some way; it hasn’t. In particular, Democrat Party messaging is as sloppy and unfocused as ever; that suggests that if indeed the electorate is sending a message, the Democrats aren’t picking it up. Of course, I may be misapprehending the very notion of a wave: I conceptualize it as a mild sort of popular uprising, driven by voters; perhaps the Democratic nomenklatura conceptualizes a wave as something that only happens once the damn primaries are out of the way, and the consultants and strategists can start shoving pallets of cash out of their helicopters into the districts, the push polls and the oppo kick in, and the Bigfoots from the Beltway can start talking to cabdrivers. [3].

NOTES

[1] The query for those inclined to improve the shining hour by checking my work:

SELECT 
primary_date as "Primary Date", 
district as "District", 
horserace_prev as "Previous", 
horserace as "Current" 
FROM districts 
WHERE horserace_prev <> horserace 
AND horserace IN ('Tilt-D', 'Lean-D','Likely-D', 'Toss-Up') 
ORDER BY primary_date

[3] I apologize for my counter-suggestibility and skepticism. Let me stress that I don’t have a dog in this fight; since gridlock is our friend, I have no issues with Democrats winning control of the House (though I might have a lot of issues about how they do it, if they do, and what the consequences are).

APPENDIX

I’m putting this video in an appendix because it could be a little disturbing. It’s a record of the Japanese tsunami of 2011 striking a small river town, and it’s nothing like I imagined. The immense power of the sea comes through very clearly, in both the assault and the withdrawal:

If anybody thinks the Democrats have anything like the power of this wave, I’d like to know what they’re smoking. If anything, they’re flotsam and jetsam floating on the surface (along with plenty of other flotsam and jetsam, needless to say).

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

17 comments

  1. DonCoyote

    Thanks as always Lambert for the (growing!) task of keeping this updated.

    If I’m looking correctly, eight states have primaries next Tuesday 06/05, including Alaska, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Mexico, New Jersey, and South Dakota. That encompasses 18 of the slots on the list (ten from CA), so perhaps we’ll have a little more clarity after that.

    1. DonCoyote

      CA-12 is a “safe” Democratic district. Lambert is focusing on the contested races (which are a minority, most of the current House seats are considered safe-D or safe-R.

      Now, of course, if any of those safe seats turn out to be not so safe, especially the safe-R seats, that would be a possible sign of a blue wave. But we won’t know that until after the November elections.

  2. DonCoyote

    Minor nits:

    NM-02 and WI-01 both have two entries.

    IA-03, NC-13, TX-32, and VA-07 are all currently listed as Party 00. All are currently R.

    PA-08 the incumbent is Cartwright, who is a D. (although , since his website still has him in the 17th.

    1. DonCoyote

      Lots of candidates are listed twice (sometimes all the candidates for a seat, e.g. CA-10, CA-25, MN-03. Others have just some of the candidates listed twice, e.g. CA-45, CA-48. {Family blog} you California for being so big and causing problems :-)

  3. Big River Bandido

    Great work, as usual.

    Detail: in IA-03, Pete D’Alessandro should have an S after his name. He ran the Bernie Sanders campaign in Iowa, and Sanders has endorsed him.

  4. Eddie Torres

    – TJ Cox is the (D) running in CA-21 against (R) Valadao. Link:
    – Andrew Janz is a (D) running in CA-22 against (R) Nunes. Link:

  5. allan

    Thank you for keeping up with the info tsunami.

    In NY-22, Brindisi should (sadly) be keyed as DCCC (Red to Blue) and

    We need to stop the special interests attempts to dismantle the Affordable Care Act and fix the real problems with the ACA by tackling the problem of higher premiums by controlling health care costs. Some ways we can do that are by lowering the costs of prescription drugs and allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices.

    1. Arizona Slim

      How about the real problem here in Pima County, Arizona?

      We have exactly one O-Care provider, Ambetter, which is offered by a company called Centene. The best way to describe them is incompetent. I could use other words, but this is a family blog.

      Fun-filled link for your reading pleasure:

      The good news is that my district is represented by a Medicare for All supporter, Raul Grijalva. And, when it comes to Ambetter problems and Arizona Slim, his constituent service has been first-rate.

  6. SpaceWeasel

    Ms. Spaulding is running in CO-5 (Colorado Springs-ish), which is R+14 and Doug Lamborn is the incumbent.

  7. Lambert Strether Post author

    Thanks to all the readers who scrubbed the data! I’ve got time for basically one pass, and so to have so many other sets of eyes is really great.

  8. Utah

    UT-04 only has one Dem candidate: Ben McAdams

    We’re a caucus-convention state. We only go to a primary if nobody makes 60% at the convention. McAdams got 72% of the vote at the Democratic Convention in April.

  9. Richard Haan

    I can’t remember whether I posted this before, but .

    “The potential influx of military-intelligence personnel into the legislature has no precedent in US political history.

    If the Democrats capture a majority in the House of Representatives on November 6, as widely predicted, candidates drawn from the military-intelligence apparatus will comprise as many as half of the new Democratic members of Congress…Democratic Party leaders are actively recruiting candidates with a military or intelligence background for competitive seats…There are far more former spies and soldiers seeking the nomination of the Democratic Party than of the Republican Party.”

    Not quote sure why or what it means, except yikes.

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