By Lambert Strether of .
Readers, here is the latest iteration of my “Table 1” for the 2018 primaries. Perhaps, some day, there may even be a Table 2! This iteration is more to build a foundation for future iterations as the primaries heat up; nevertheless, there are some interesting results. This is what I did for structure:
1) I added a column for the primary dates.
2) I added a column for the previous iteration’s horserace ratings, so I can track changes in the tilts, leans, and likelies. (As before, the data is ).
3) I also did more work on the Likely Rs, but it’s not ready to show yet.
And for data:
1) I rechecked all the backers: DCCC, Emily’s List, Our Revolution, Justice Democrats, Brand New Congress, and Indivisible. There were very few additions from Our Revolution, who seem to back mostly state and local canidates; very few from Emily’s List, who focus on early money, anyhow; and none from Indivisible, who although they have an endorsement process, have made very few endorsements to date). DCCC, however, was quite active.
2) I rechecked all the horserace ratings (see Figure 2, below).
I did not rework the Challengers column, which means I am behind the curve especially in volatile states like Pennsylvania, but now that I have the primary dates, I can do more “just in time” data entry; it really is too much to check every single challenger every time I put this table together.
So, herewith, the table. After the table, I’ll present some results.
Table 1: Worksheet on House Races, Election 2018 (2018-05-01).
|District||Primary Date||Party||Status||Incumbent||Horserace||Horserace (Previous)||Challengers|
|AZ-02||08-28||R||Open||McSally||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||, [DP; h], (, ) [EL, DCCC, DP][M], , () [JD; m][fM], () , () [DP][M], [DP][M]|
|CA-10||06-05||R||—||Denham||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||[DP; m][M], , [e][M], [fM], [M],|
|CA-25||06-05||R||—||Knight||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||[M], [fM], Mary Pallant () ,|
|CA-39||06-05||R||Open||Royce||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||(; ) [DCCC; m], () [DP][M], [DP], , Cybil Steed () [e], () [OR; e][M], (, ) [EL; h]|
|CA-45||06-05||R||—||Walters||Lean-R||Lean-R||[DP; s], John Graham , [M], (CAP.) , [M]|
|CA-48||06-05||R||—||Rohrabacher||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||[h][fM], (Googler; ) [EL; s], , Deanie Schaarsmith , [in][fM], [m][M]|
|CA-49||06-05||R||Open||Issa||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||[JD; m][M], () [EL, DP][M], ( ) [m][M], () [DP][M]|
|CO-06||06-26||R||—||Coffman||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||[DCCC, DP; m], [M], [M]|
|FL-07||08-28||D||—||Murphy||Lean-D||Lean-D||[BN, JD; m][M]|
|FL-26||08-28||R||—||Curbelo||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||[m], () , Steven Machat [M], , [m]|
|FL-27||08-28||R||Open||Ros-Lehtinen||Lean-D||Lean-D||[EL], () [DP; e], , () [BN, JD; e], , (, ) [DP][M], () [DP], [DP], (; ) [DP]|
|IA-01||06-05||R||—||Blum||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||Abby Finkenauer , , [m, l], [JD; m][M]|
|IL-06||03-20||R||—||Roskam||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||Becky Anderson () , () [fM], , [DP; e], [M], (“A Medicare-for-all public option.”) [fM], Becky Anderson Wilkins () , Becky Anderson Wilkins () ,|
|IL-12||03-20||R||—||Bost||Lean-R||Lean-R||[m], () [DCCC; m, in, l]|
|KS-02||08-07||R||Open||Jenkins||Lean-R||Lean-R||, Nathan Schmidt ()|
|KS-03||08-07||R||—||Yoder||Lean-R||Lean-R||Sharice Davids () , , (“Create a single-payer Option”) [s], Tom Niermann [e], , [M],|
|KY-06||05-22||R||—||Barr||Lean-R||Lean-R||Jim Gray () , , , [DP; m], [DP; e], ()|
|MI-08||08-27||R||—||Bishop||Lean-R||Lean-R||(; ; .) [EL, DCCC, DP; m, in][fM],|
|MI-11||08-27||R||Open||Trott||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||(Site not responsive.) , , [fM], Fayrouz Saad [M],|
|MN-01||08-14||D||Open||Walz||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||[M], (, , ) [DCCC, DP; m], [DP], () [m], , () [DP; m, l][M]|
|MN-02||08-14||R||—||Lewis||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||() [EL, DCCC], () [e][M]|
|MN-03||08-14||R||—||Paulsen||Lean-R||Lean-R||[M], Adam Jennings () [m],|
|MN-08||08-14||D||Open||Nolan||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||() [DP], [M], () [DP], () [in][M], [DP]|
|NE-02||05-15||R||—||Bacon||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||, (; .) [JD; e][M]|
|NH-01||09-11||D||Open||Shea-Porter||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||(, ) [DP], () [DP], () [BN; s][M], [m, l][M], () [DP], (; ) [M], [l], () [EL, DP; m]|
|NJ-02||06-05||R||Open||LoBiondo||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||() [DP], () [e][M], () [DCCC, DP], () [e]|
|NJ-07||06-05||R||—||Lance||Lean-R||Lean-R||(; ) [M], ,|
|NJ-11||06-05||R||Open||Frelinghuysen||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||[l], () [m], () , Alison Heslin , () [EL, DCCC; m, l][M], [e][M]|
|NV-03||06-12||D||Open||Rosen||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||, (; )) [EL, DCCC; e], [M], () [s], , Eric Stoltz , () [M]|
|NV-04||06-12||D||Open||Kihuen||Likely-D||Likely-D||() [e], () [DCCC, DP], () [DP; m][M], () [DP; e], () [BN, JD][M], [m, in]|
|NY-19||06-26||R||—||Faso||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||[JD; in, e][M], [M], Erin Collier () , [fM], Brian Flynn [M], , [m, in]|
|PA-01||05-15||R||—||Fitzpatrick||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||[DP; e][M], [EL; m], Scott Wallace ()|
|PA-05||05-15||R||Open||Meehan||Likely-D||Likely-D||[e], () [DP], () [in][fM], [DP], [DP], () [DP][M], () , () [l], (; ) [DP], , () [s][M], () [DP], ,|
|PA-06||05-15||R||—||Costello||Likely-D||Likely-D||(; ) [EL, DCCC; m]|
|PA-07||05-15||R||Open||Dent||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||, [DP], [JD][M], [DP; l], () [e], (; ) [EL; l]|
|PA-17||05-15||R||—||Rothfus||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||[m, l], Ray Linsenmayer (Dropped out (oddly). ; ; .)|
|TX-07||03-06||R||—||Culberson||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||[h, e], [DP], , , Ivan Sanchez [fM], , (; ) [h]|
|TX-23||03-06||R||—||Hurd||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||[EL, DCCC, DP; m, l][M], [JD, OR, DP][M]|
|UT-04||06-26||R||—||Love||Lean-R||Lean-R||() , , [JD; s][M], Morgan Shepherd , [s][M]|
|VA-10||06-12||R||—||Comstock||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||[DP; h], () [s], () [DP; in], () [m][M], , () [l], () , () [DP], () [DP; l]|
|WA-08||08-07||R||Open||Reichert||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||, [M], () [h], () [M], [M], () [IN; l][M], () [EL, IN; h]|
|WI-01||08-14||R||Open||Ryan||Lean-R||Lean-R||() [fM], () [e][M]|
Biography: m, i, l, o (“MILO”) Military, Intelligence, Law Enforcement, Other)
Backers: BN, EL, IN, JD, OR; DCCC; DP; S: Brand New Congress, Emily’s List, Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution; DCCC; Democrat Party, whether elected, staffer, official, etc.; inspired by Sanders.
Policies: M, fM, Medicare for All, and faux Medicare for All.
- Bio keys are m, i, l, and o) for Military, Intelligence, Law Enforcement, and Other (except I didn’t find any Others this time). A candidate who worked for the CIA is keyed i. A candidate who worked in Law enforcement and the military is keyed “lm.” “Law Enforcement” is conceived broadly, including not only police but district attorneys.
- Backer keys are BN, EL, IN, JD, OR, and DCCC, Brand New Congress, Emily’s List, Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, and (of course) the DCCC. In addition, there is a DP key, for members of the Democrat Party network, elected and otherwise, and S, for challengers inspired by Sanders.
- Policy keys are M, fM, for Medicare for All, and any of the various bait-and-switch alternatives proposed by think tanks like CAP, or centrists like Merkeley. Some judgement is involved, based on the verbiage. “Single payer” always merits an “M,” for example.
Figure 1: Primary Dates
As you can see, primaries in IL and TX have already passed (although the TX-07 run-off between Moser and Fletcher will happen on May 22). Anyhow, now that I have this Calendar, I can make Water Cooler coverage a bit more tied to current events. And those of you who contribute to candidates may find this useful for planning.
Figure 2: “The Wave
If indeed there is to be a “wave,” it will show up in the districts. We should expect to see signs of it as Tilt-R districts change to Toss-Ups, Toss-Ups change to Tilt-Ds, and so on. (I grant that the methodology is what it is; I’m summarizing the handicappers. Presumably, however, the handicappers are looking at the polls. I’m including the SQL not to show off, but because it’s so much fun to ask the data a question and get an answer!)
So, MN-07 changed from Lean-D to Likely-D. That is the wave so far.
Of course, is a long time in politics, and maybe the real effects don’t kick in until after the primaries. I don’t see why that should be so, however; if party enthusiasm is the key factor behind a wave, it should be showing up before any candidates are chosen. Certainly that’s what people — people on the Twitter, and so forth — say is happening, right now.
Figure 3: Medicare for All and the DCCC (Candidates)
You can see that of 23 candidates backed by the DCCC, three (13%) support #MedicareForAll. I keep saying that the top priority for liberal Democrats this cycle is preventing #MedicareForAll, and numbers like this provide ample backing for that thesis. You can also see the fallback position: faux Medicare for All, under such vague rubrics as “universal access,” etc.
Figure 4: Medicare for All and the DCCC (Districts)
I wondered what accounted for DCCC-supported candidates who did the right thing; it looks to me that when faced with challenges from the left on #MedicareForAll, they do indeed move left themselves (though of course the bait-and-switch alternatives provide ample scope for betrayal at a later date.
Hopefully, readers find this series of reaonably deep dives useful; suggestions for future topics to look into are welcome. (Spoiler: I’m coming round to the notion that the real wedge issue for the Democrat Party is the nature of the Party itself. As Lampedusa did not say: “If we want things to change, things will have to change.” I know this is meta, but so be it.)
 The only list of DCCC-backed candidates I can find on the DCCC site is from their flagship “Red to Blue” program. Doubtless there are more.